OPEC forecasts gasoline-led rise in 2026 oil demand
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has retained its global oil demand and supply forecasts for 2025, according to its Monthly Oil Market Report released on Monday.
While keeping its overall projections unchanged, the oil cartel provided new insights into product-level consumption trends, identifying jet fuel as a major driver of demand growth in 2025, while gasoline is expected to lead consumption expansion in 2026.
OPEC said the rebound in international air travel and sustained mobility demand in emerging markets would continue to underpin the medium-term outlook for global oil consumption.
A report by Argus said the group continues to expect oil demand to rise by 1.29 mn b/d to 105.14 million barrels per day in 2025 and by a further 1.38 million barrels per day to 106.52 million barrels per day in 2026.
It made small downward revisions to its 2025 demand growth projections for China and India compared with last month’s report, but stronger forecasts for other parts of Asia, as well as Africa and Latin America, offset the changes, keeping the overall non-OECD growth estimate broadly steady at around 1.2 million barrels per day.
Jet/kerosene is forecast to lead global demand growth in 2025, rising by 380,000 barrels per day year-on-year, followed by diesel and gasoline at 300,000 barrels per day and 280,000 barrels per day, respectively.
LPG and naphtha are expected to add a combined 510,000 b/d, driven by petrochemical demand, while heavy distillates are projected to decline by 120,000 b/d.
For 2026, gasoline is forecast to lead growth at 430,000 b/d, followed by jet/kerosene at 360,000 b/d. Diesel demand growth is projected to slow to 190,000 b/d. LPG and naphtha demand is forecast to increase by a combined 400,000 b/d.
On the supply side, OPEC left its non-OPEC+ output growth forecasts unchanged, at 810,000 b/d in 2025 and 630,000 b/d in 2026, led by the US, Brazil, Canada and Argentina.
Opec+ crude output, including Mexico, rose by 630,000 b/d on the month to 43.05 mn b/d in September, based on an average of secondary sources including Argus.
The group estimates the call on OPEC+ crude at 42.5 mn b/d in 2025 and 43.1 mn b/d in 2026, unchanged from its previous report.
