OPEC cuts oil-demand growth forecast for 2024, 2025

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), yesterday cut its forecast for growth in oil demand for 2024 and 2025. In its monthly report, OPEC said it cut its forecast for demand growth in 2024 by 106,000 barrels a day to 1.9 million barrels a day (mbpd).

OPEC cited “actual data received, combined with slightly lower expectations for some regions.” The organisation also lowered its forecast for 2025 by 102,000 barrels a day to 1.6 mbpd. That puts OPEC’s estimate for 2024 oil demand at 104.14 mbpd in 2024, down from 104.24 in its September report. Demand for 2025 is seen at 105.78 mbpd, down from 105.99 mbpd.

Meanwhile OPEC’s crude oil production slumped by 604,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September compared to August, as Libya’s output was largely halted amid a political standoff and Iraq moved to improve compliance with the OPEC+ cuts.

All 12 OPEC producers pumped on average 26.04 million bpd of crude last month, down by 604,000 bpd from August, due to a 410,000 bpd plunge in Libyan output, OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) showed yesterday.

Libya, which is exempted from the OPEC+ agreement, saw its average production slump to 540,000 bpd in September, which was more than halved compared to the 1.2 million bpd the country was producing before the month-long crisis that began at the end of August. Libya’s production resumed in early October and has now rebounded to 1.3 million bpd.

Output in Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, fell by 155,000 bpd to 4.112 million bpd, per OPEC’s secondary sources in the report. However, that’s still more than 100,000 bpd higher compared to Iraq’s pledge to keep output capped at around 4 million bpd. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s top producer, continued to keep its promise to have output at around 9 million bpd. In September, the Kingdom’s crude oil production averaged 8.971 million bpd, down by 23,000 bpd from August. Iran, exempted from the OPEC+ cuts due to the U.S. sanctions on its oil industry, saw its production rise by 21,000 bpd to an average of 3.316 million bpd, according to OPEC’s the secondary sources such as consultancies. Among the non-OPEC producers part of the OPEC+ agreement, crude oil production averaged 14.06 million bpd in September, up by 47,000 bpd compared to August. Oil output increased mainly in Kazakhstan, while production in Russia decreased. Kazakhstan’s production rose by 75,000 bpd to 1.545 million bpd in September, per the secondary sources. Iraq and non-OPEC producers Russia and Kazakhstan have continuously vowed they would fall in line and compensate for previous overproduction by September 2025. Oil futures were lower ahead of the report, with analysts citing disappointment over a lack of detailed stimulus measures from China over the weekend.