Expert tasks FG on 2030 economy growth target of S1trn

By Kenneth Madueke

The Executive Officer of CFG Advisory, Mr Tilwa Adebayo, has expressed doubts on the Federal Government’s ability to realise the ambitious economic growth target of S1 trillion by 2030 without its readiness to carry out comprehensive structural reforms that could drive  productivity and restore fiscal sustainability.

The financial expert stated this position in Lagos while unveiling this year’s economic forecast titled, “The urgency of now– reforms lead to productivity- led growth” at the forum of financial journalists.

According to him,  the country’s trillion – dollar ambition would remain a  slogan unless it is backed by deliberate, coordinated and productivity- driven growth strategies.

In his words, ” The country has the potential to become a S2 trillion or even S3 trillion economy but only if it breaks away from its long- standing cycle of policy inconsistency, macroeconomic instability and weak capital investment”.

He, therefore, outlined  recommendations that would enable the nation’s economy to come out of the current woods and be  positioned to realise its laudable goals.

  According  to the expert, the Federal government should urgently sell down at least 49 per cent of its stake in the country’s 74 Licensed Concession Assets to raise an estimated $50bn, strengthen public finances, and restructure and recapitalise the balance sheet of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC).

Adebajo also advised the Federal Government to consolidate all of NNPC’s oil forward contracts into a structured debt instrument to improve ease of management, secure better pricing, and enhance transparency and accountability.

He believed that addressing these bottlenecks would help restore investment in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, which has declined from about $22bn in 2009 and 2014 to less than $3bn in 2024.

This, he noted ,would support efforts to ramp up crude oil production to 2.5 million barrels per day, improve revenue sustainability, boost foreign exchange availability, and reduce interest rates.

He urged the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to consider cutting interest rates to support policy implementation aimed at boosting productivity, growth, exchange rate stability, lower inflation, and increased investment.

  The recommendations, he said , have become increasingly urgent given  concerns that the N15.52tn allocated for debt servicing in the 2026 Appropriation Bill exceeds the combined provision for defence and security, education, and health, which totals N11.41tn.

He recalled that

President Bola Tinubu  presented a N58.18tn Appropriation Bill to a joint sitting of the National Assembly in December 2025. The President identified security, infrastructure, education, health, and agricultural productivity as key priorities in the 2026 budget, with proposed allocations of N5.41tn for defence and security, N3.56tn for infrastructure, N3.52tn for education, and N2.48tn for health. Debt servicing is projected at N15.52tn, while the budget deficit stands at N23.85tn, representing 4.28 per cent of Gross Domestic Product.

He stated that these priorities are closely interconnected, adding “without security, investment will not thrive,” while educated and healthy citizens are critical to productivity and long-term economic growth.

He noted,“Approaching the third year of difficult reforms, the urgency of now is clear,” he said. “The economy is at a point of inflection, and the government must implement policies that convert reform gains into productivity-led growth of 8–10 per cent, capable of improving livelihoods and lifting over 140 million Nigerians out of multidimensional poverty.”

The  expert warned that fiscal discipline remains a major concern. “A three-year cumulative budget deficit exceeding N50tn, persistent inability to fund capital budgets, and a 2026 fiscal deficit of N23.85tn underscore this challenge. Most alarmingly, debt service obligations of N15.2tn in 2026 exceed the combined N14.97tn allocation for defence, security, education, and health, raising a red flag that demands urgent attention,” he said.

Despite these challenges, Adebajo noted that some macroeconomic indicators are beginning to improve.

He said that by the last quarter of 2025, the economy had shown signs of stability, with key indicators moving in the right direction after 26 months of reforms.

He cautioned that reform fatigue has pushed the economy into a difficult phase. “Reforms alone cannot pull the economy out of stagflation onto a path of sustainable growth. The Federal Government urgently needs to revise and implement a coordinated growth strategy by aligning structural reforms with trade, industrial, investment, monetary, and fiscal policies,” he said.

According to him,the economy has suffered from over 200 per cent currency devaluation, debt exceeding $100bn, and deepening stagflation, leaving households and businesses struggling with low purchasing power, weak productivity, high interest rates, and unfavourable exchange rates.

He  said that social intervention programmes designed  to cushion the impact of reforms have failed and must be restored to give the reforms a human face.

Adebayo acknowledged recent policy gains, noting that the CBN has reduced interest rates from 27.50 per cent to 27 per cent in response to easing inflationary pressures.

According  to the expert, fuel subsidy savings have been remitted since January 2025, boosting revenues for the Federal Government and states. In addition, the gap between the official and parallel foreign exchange markets has narrowed, monthly FX inflows have risen to between $5bn and $8bn year-on-year, and net foreign exchange reserves have recovered to $23bn from $3.3bn in 2023.

But, he noted  that foreign direct investment remains at an all-time low of under $126m in the first quarter of 2025, while poor power transmission and distribution infrastructure continues to undermine industrial productivity and economic growth.

According  to him,  Nigeria’s debt profile, now exceeding $100bn with trillions of naira spent on debt servicing, is unsustainable.

In his words, “All the gains from fuel subsidy removal are now being absorbed by debt service.

“The 2025 budget needs to be urgently revised downwards. Excessive fiscal spending, a large deficit, and the failure of social intervention programmes have left households and businesses despondent, with the economy stuck in stagflation. It is time to restore social intervention programmes and give the reforms a human face” .